UFC 289: Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana odds, picks and predictions

May 07, 2023

In a women's bantamweight championship bout in the main event, Amanda Nunes and Irene Aldana meet Saturday at UFC 289 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 7 p.m., prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, with the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

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Nunes, a.k.a. "The Lioness", takes the walk with the bantamweight strap in tow. The 35-year-old was stunned in a 2nd-round submission setback at UFC 269 against Julianna Pena in December, 2021, but she returned the favor with a unanimous-decision win at UFC 277 in July to get her title back.

Since taking the belt off of Miesha Tate at UFC 200 in July 2016, Nunes is 8-1 in title defense fights. She has gone the distance in 3 of her past 5 fights — all victories — against Germaine de Randamie, Felicia Spencer and Pena.

Aldana enters the octagon as a huge underdog. She has recorded consecutive KO/TKO wins over Macy Chiasson and Yana Santos, but a fight against the legend Nunes is a giant step up in competition. Aldana appeared in one other main event in a Fight Night card on Oct. 3, 2020, losing to Holly Holm via unanimous decision.

Aldana actually holds a 5.39-to-4.40 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although the champ is much more accurate at 57.43% compared to just 43.58% for Aldana. Nunes also loves the takedown, registering a 2.61 TD average, as opposed to just 0.20 for her challenger.

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:32 a.m. ET.

Records: Nunes (22-5-0) | Aldana (14-6-0)

It's a treat to be able to watch Nunes (-350), as she is one of the most dominant fighters in UFC history. But it's also a little boring, too. She has won 13 of her past 14 fights, which makes the Pena loss at UFC 269 that much more shocking.

She reportedly contemplated retiring after that setback, but bounced back with a revenge win instead and now finds herself at the pinnacle again — and a heavy favorite to stay there.

However, you cannot risk 3 1/2 times your potential return on the 2-way line. Instead, NUNES BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+100) at even money is a much better play in the 7-way Method of Victory category.

No (-250): Will the fight go the distance? is not worth playing. It will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that's just too expensive for not enough reward.

Instead, play a 3-round block instead. Playing NUNES IN ROUND 2 (+400), NUNES IN ROUND 3 (+800) and NUNES IN ROUND 4 (+1400). Yes, you’re going to lose 2 of those ends, but if Nunes gets the finish in Round 2 through 4, you’ll be well ahead, especially if she wins in Round 3 or 4.

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